Mesoscale Discussion 1040
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0433 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2020

   Areas affected...South Carolina and far southeast North Carolina

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 282133Z - 282300Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Strong storms are expected to continue through the
   evening. The primary threat will be damaging wind gusts.

   DISCUSSION...Storm activity has started to expand as storms move off
   of the higher terrain of the Appalachians and into a warm moist
   environment with temperatures in the low 90s and dewpoints in the
   low 70s, yielding MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg. Storms thus far have
   become quickly outflow dominant, which is unsurprising given meager
   effective shear around 20 knots per GSP/CAE VWP. However, despite
   the meager shear, some damaging wind gusts will be possible with
   collapsing cores given moderate to strong instability and DCAPE
   around 1100 J/kg ahead of this activity. 

   The mostly unorganized nature of the convection will likely preclude
   the need for a severe thunderstorm watch, but trends will be
   monitored and if a more organized severe weather threat appears
   likely, a watch may be needed.

   ..Bentley/Guyer.. 06/28/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...

   LAT...LON   34768319 35018264 35388144 35258021 34607891 33867761
               33787794 33787841 33647875 33417903 33217910 33058002
               33188135 33888251 34768319