Mesoscale Discussion 1048
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0122 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of southern MN and far west-central WI

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 290622Z - 290845Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated hail and strong/gusty winds may persist with
   ongoing storms for the next few hours. Watch issuance appears
   unlikely unless storms can organize into a line with a greater
   damaging wind threat.

   DISCUSSION...Low-level convergence and warm advection on the back
   side of a well-defined MCV is supporting robust storm development in
   a arcing band across parts of southern MN into far west-central WI.
   Steep mid-level lapse rates along/south of this convection combined
   with rich low-level moisture are resulting in a large amount of
   instability, with MUCAPE in the 2000-3500 J/kg range per latest
   mesoanalysis estimates. The low-level south-southwesterly flow
   generally remains in the 30-35 kt range based on recent VWPs from
   KMPX, with somewhat weaker winds through mid levels. This marginal
   deep-layer shear profile may tend to limit overall storm
   organization, with more of a cluster/multicell mode expected. Still,
   given the large reservoir of buoyancy, isolated hail and perhaps
   strong/gusty downdrafts winds may occur. A brief tornado cannot be
   entirely ruled out either given a veering/strengthening wind profile
   in the low levels, but static stability of the boundary layer should
   tend to limit the tornado threat.

   There may be a chance for storms to congeal into a more organized
   bowing line with a potentially greater damaging wind threat later
   this morning per some short-term model guidance. But, the low-level
   jet is forecast to gradually weaken after 09-10Z, which suggests a
   gradual weakening trend should occur. Watch issuance appears
   unlikely at this time, with greater signs of storm organization
   being needed for higher watch probabilities.

   ..Gleason/Grams.. 06/29/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...

   LAT...LON   45089531 44979435 45089362 45409281 45349197 45219133
               44589161 44169247 44079362 44179467 44589541 45029560
               45089531