Mesoscale Discussion 1049
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0128 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2020

   Areas affected...Southern/central Wisconsin

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 291828Z - 292000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms will continue to develop in a very unstable airmass
   this afternoon. Weak shear should limit storm organization. A few
   strong/damaging microbursts and marginally severe hail are possible.
   No WW is expected.

   DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms has developed near and south of an
   outflow boundary across southern WI. A very unstable airmass is in
   place with 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE on objective mesoanalysis.
   Deep-layer flow is quite weak and will keep convection relatively
   unorganized. The airmass in the wake of the MCV, and north of the
   current activity, is showing signs of increasing destabilization.
   Shear in this region is stronger given the remnant 30-40 kt flow
   aloft. With the MCV continuing to pull away to the north, the
   favorable overlap of buoyancy and shear is expected to be minimal
   this far south. Given the instability, a few strong/damaging
   microbursts are possible as well as marginally severe hail. Lack of
   convective organization is expected to preclude WW issuance.

   ..Wendt/Hart.. 06/29/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...

   LAT...LON   43429109 43789093 44498972 44328832 43538786 42878829
               42638940 42739020 43039091 43429109