Mesoscale Discussion 1060
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0459 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020

   Areas affected...North Dakota

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 302159Z - 010000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Some severe threat will be noted with thunderstorms across
   North Dakota this evening; however, convection may struggle at
   times. Will continue to monitor for possible ww.

   DISCUSSION...Complex convective scenario is underway across the
   northern Plains this evening. Scattered convection has been ongoing
   within a zone of warm advection along/north of the advancing warm
   front. This activity has struggled to organize as updrafts appear to
   be impeded by poor lapse rates in the lowest 3km (warm 700mb
   temperatures). Supporting this, satellite imagery depicts anvils
   that are not replenishing rapidly, and/or venting strongly aloft.
   Even so, focused LLJ into ND, and approaching short-wave trough,
   suggest this area will need to be monitored for possible ww. Until
   thermodynamic profiles adjust, and the influential cap is removed,
   convection may not be as robust as some of the objective analysis
   might otherwise suggest.

   ..Darrow/Guyer.. 06/30/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

   LAT...LON   47870076 48469940 48349781 47499692 46839768 46779967
               47030115 47870076