Mesoscale Discussion 1069
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0955 AM CDT Wed Jul 01 2020

   Areas affected...Southeast Missouri...northeast Arkansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 011455Z - 011630Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Limited potential for damaging wind gusts exists for areas
   downstream of ongoing south-central MO convection. Greatest risk
   appears to be in northeast AR if convection is maintained. No WW is
   currently expected. Trends will be monitored, however.

   DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms moving southeastward into
   south-central Missouri may pose some risk for isolated
   strong/damaging wind gusts for another few hours. Overall,
   convective trends have been down with IR satellite showing
   contraction of the coldest cloud tops. With the 12Z LZK showing near
   22 C at 850 mb and outflow from an overnight MCS to the east, the
   potential for intensification appears limited. Should convection
   maintain strength, the area of greatest risk for damaging wind gusts
   will likely exist in northeast Arkansas where the strongest heating
   will occur. Given the uncertainty, no WW is currently anticipated.
   Trends will continue to be monitored this afternoon.

   ..Wendt/Hart.. 07/01/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

   LAT...LON   37809339 38259256 37919086 36578997 35479000 35219073
               35459176 36709303 37359348 37809339