Mesoscale Discussion 1073
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0436 PM CDT Wed Jul 01 2020

   Areas affected...Southwest OK into Western TX

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 012136Z - 012300Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Sporadic severe, locally damaging, wind gusts and hail are
   possible for a couple of hours late this afternoon. A watch is not
   expected as the threat will be brief and transient.

   DISCUSSION...Vigorous thunderstorms development has occurred over
   the last 30-60 minutes from southwest OK into western TX. These
   storms are developing in response to strong heating along a surface
   dryline. Dewpoints range from the low 60s F to near 70 F just ahead
   of the dryline, resulting in an intense instability gradient from
   around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE to upwards of 3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Shear
   remains weak across the region, with vertical winds generally less
   than 20 kt through the entire VWP from regional WSR-88Ds. As a
   result, intense updrafts will be short-lived as storms struggle to
   remain organized. Furthermore, very steep low level lapse rates will
   support strong downburst winds. As a result, a few severe storms are
   possible, mainly posing a threat for locally damaging winds greater
   than 65 mph. The strongest cells could also produce marginal hail,
   but given a lack of stronger shear, cells will be rather transient
   and unorganized. 

   As convection is largely diurnally-driven, expect a 2-3 hour window
   where a few severe storms are possible from southwest OK into
   western TX. Convection should quickly diminish heading into evening
   as the boundary layer becomes increasingly stable with loss of
   daytime heating.

   ..Leitman/Thompson.. 07/01/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

   LAT...LON   34759901 32849953 31490009 30880051 30430147 30580220
               30870253 32730133 34310018 34879949 34909919 34759901