Mesoscale Discussion 1075
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0632 PM CDT Wed Jul 01 2020

   Areas affected...western KS

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 012332Z - 020100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated severe gusts and hail are possible with
   high-based supercells across western KS for a couple of hours this
   evening.

   DISCUSSION...Isolated supercells have developed early this evening
   across western KS in an area of moist, easterly low level flow on
   the back side of a surface low over northwest OK. Dewpoints in the
   mid to upper 60s are supporting MLCAPE values between 2000-4000 J/kg
   amid effective shear around 25-35 kt. Long, straight hodographs are
   indicated in model forecasts, as well as regional VWP data,
   resulting in splitting cells, which has been evident over the past
   30 minutes in radar data loops. Overall, forcing is expected to
   remain weak across the area, but supercell kinematic and
   thermodynamic profiles indicate organization of stronger updrafts.
   As a result, isolated severe storms capable of strong downburst
   winds (given steep low level lapse rates and weak low level shear)
   and hail are possible for a couple of hours this evening. Storms
   will drift generally eastward, but the severe threat should largely
   remain confined to a small part of western KS near DDC and GCK.

   ..Leitman/Thompson.. 07/01/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...

   LAT...LON   37880174 38410163 38780123 38840077 38580040 38210022
               37720028 37320034 37160045 37130104 37260149 37880174