Mesoscale Discussion 1077
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0141 PM CDT Thu Jul 02 2020

   Areas affected...Northeast New York and parts of New England

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 021841Z - 022030Z

   CORRECTED FOR DISCUSSION AREA HEADER

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Widely scattered strong thunderstorms are expected to
   occur this  afternoon over portions of New England and northeast New
   York.  Locally damaging wind gusts and hail are the primary risks. 
   Present indications are that a WW is not needed.

   DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms have begun to form along the
   US/Canadian border from northeast New York into Maine. This area has
   seen full sunshine today, with temperatures in the mid-upper 80s and
   dewpoints holding in the 60s.  Low level lapse rates are relatively
   steep, with MLCAPE values of around 1500 J/kg.  Deep layer shear
   values shown on CXX/CBW VADs of only 20-30 knots will limit overall
   convective organization, with multicell structures most likely. 
   Relatively weak mid-level lapse rates will also limit updraft
   strength.  Nevertheless, sufficient instability suggests a risk of a
   few strong storms capable of gusty/damaging winds and perhaps hail. 
   If clusters of storms can form larger cold pools, slightly more
   organized corridors of wind potential could form.  Given the overall
   environment, the severe risk is expected to remain isolated and no
   watch is currently anticipated.

   ..Hart.. 07/02/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV...ALY...

   LAT...LON   44987397 45077248 46097046 46706842 46206732 45346754
               44366909 43667112 43197290 43257436 43997485 44687430
               44987397