Mesoscale Discussion 1078
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1259 PM CDT Thu Jul 02 2020

   Areas affected...western South Dakota through southwest North Dakota

   Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

   Valid 021759Z - 021930Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop across western South
   Dakota and possibly into southwest North Dakota in the 19-20Z time
   frame. Large hail and isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible
   with the stronger storms. A WW will likely be needed once it becomes
   evident thunderstorm initiation is imminent.

   DISCUSSION...Early this afternoon a cold front extends from
   northwest North Dakota through northeast and central WY preceded by
   a pre-frontal trough. Non-severe elevated convection is ongoing from
   central ND through west central SD and is associated with a weak
   shortwave trough moving northeast through the region. In wake of the
   early storms, strong diabatic heating of the surface layer is
   occurring, and as temperatures rise to near 90F, MLCAPE should
   approach 3500 J/kg and convective inhibition will undergo
   substantial weakening. Initial surface-based storms might develop
   over the Black Hills, but other storms may initiate along
   pre-frontal trough and advancing cold front. Much of this region
   resides southeast of the stronger southwesterly flow aloft, but
   30-40 kt effective shear will support both supercells and multicells
   before activity evolves into linear structures during the evening.

   ..Dial/Hart.. 07/02/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...

   LAT...LON   43860384 45180355 46760276 46610115 44440069 43290133
               43200335 43860384