Mesoscale Discussion 1081
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0230 PM CDT Thu Jul 02 2020

   Areas affected...Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles...southeastern
   Colorado...southwestern Kansas...and far northeastern New Mexico

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 021930Z - 022130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible with cells
   across the discussion area.  This threat should remain sparse enough
   to preclude a WW issuance, however.

   DISCUSSION...Deepening convection was observed over the past hour or
   so in a couple of regimes - one within an axis of deeply mixed,
   unstable air extending from southeastern Colorado into the Amarillo
   area and a second near a remnant outflow roughly 35 miles
   south-southwest of Dodge City.  These storms were in an environment
   characterized by steep low- and mid-level lapse rates (ranging from
   9+ C/km in western portions of the discussion area to around 7.5-8
   C/km farther east).  Shear values are poor, however, owing to meager
   flow throughout the troposphere as the region resides well south of
   any mid/upper jet structure.  Nevertheless, very weak/subtle surface
   heating combined with the airmass reaching convective temp over a
   broad area (as indicated by point forecast soundings) both indicate
   that convection should continue to deepen through the afternoon,
   resulting in weakly organized convection with occasional strong to
   severe downbursts.  One potential limiting factor for more
   widespread convective development, however, is the gradually
   strengthening mid/upper ridge across the region, which has
   contributed to gradual height rises throughout the morning.

   The isolated nature of the severe threat with this activity should
   preclude a WW issuance.

   ..Cook/Hart.. 07/02/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   36600335 38090358 38570326 38710252 38530180 37980076
               37770037 37259992 36369998 35720023 35240055 34870146
               34800173 34720228 35230273 35640309 35920314 36600335