Mesoscale Discussion 1082
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0444 PM CDT Thu Jul 02 2020

   Areas affected...Southwest Missouri and eastern Oklahoma into
   central Arkansas and far west Mississippi

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 022144Z - 022345Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Continued thunderstorm development is possible from
   northwest Arkansas into southeast Arkansas and associated with
   ongoing MCSs across western Mississippi and east/southeast Oklahoma.
   Occasional strong down burst winds will be possible with these
   storms.

   DISCUSSION...Recent surface observations show a diffuse frontal
   boundary draped from southwest Missouri southeastward into southeast
   Arkansas. Meanwhile, ongoing MCSs across east/southeast Oklahoma and
   far western Mississippi continue to propagate to the south and west,
   respectively, within a weak shear, but high MLCAPE (3000-4000 J/kg),
   environment. Additional thunderstorm development is possible along
   the frontal zone given weak surface convergence and outflow
   boundaries from ongoing convection, and MCS maintenance appears
   likely prior to sunset and low-level stabilization. Additionally,
   the developing cluster of storms across southwest MO should become
   somewhat more organized as it continues to move into the more
   unstable air mass to the south/southeast.  Despite the unfavorable
   wind environment for organized convection, steep low level lapse
   rates between 7-8 C/km remain in place across the greater AR region.
   Given the expected pulse-type nature of the storms and favorable
   low-level thermodynamic environment, occasional strong down burst
   winds will be possible. Due to the expected isolated nature of the
   threat, a watch is not likely.

   ..Moore/Thompson.. 07/02/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...ICT...OUN...

   LAT...LON   37509492 37309359 36299190 34849091 33709052 32489036
               32229077 33289188 34129265 34469379 34149555 34239732
               34879707 35439538 36249510 36899515 37509492