Mesoscale Discussion 1083
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0530 PM CDT Thu Jul 02 2020

   Areas affected...Southeast New York into Maine

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 022230Z - 030030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated damaging winds remain possible with ongoing
   thunderstorms. A watch is not likely given the isolated nature of
   the threat.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms that have developed along a surface
   trough, and in the vicinity of a surface low in place across
   southern ME, continue to move to the south within a northerly flow
   regime featuring 30-35 knots of effective bulk shear. These storms
   have already produced a couple instances of damaging winds across
   eastern NY and pea sized hail has been noted in ME. Given the
   mentioned shear and 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE, storm organization
   remains possible for the next 1-2 hours before storms move offshore
   or into a more stable air mass to the south. Given low-level lapse
   rates around 8 C/km in place across the region, isolated damaging
   wind gusts should continue to be the primary threat. An instance of
   severe hail can not be ruled out, but given a more linear storm move
   across southern ME and outflow-driven storms in NY, the hail threat
   appears to be low. Given the isolated nature of the wind threat, a
   watch is not likely.

   ..Moore/Thompson.. 07/02/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...BGM...

   LAT...LON   44627041 45386885 46076824 45686736 44976714 44406784
               43966933 43607002 42967053 42027051 41537086 40847247
               40757392 41487441 42607448 42867416 43157301 43957135
               44377077 44627041