Mesoscale Discussion 1085
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0616 PM CDT Thu Jul 02 2020

   Areas affected...Western South Dakota

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 322...

   Valid 022316Z - 030115Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 322
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The risk for severe wind and hail continues for portions
   of WW 322.

   DISCUSSION...Recent radar trends from western SD and southwest ND
   continue to show a combination of discrete/semi-discrete storms
   across southwest SD with more linear modes noted across northwest
   SD. The greatest near-term threat for severe wind will likely be
   associated with the southern edge of the developing line of storms
   across northwest SD. While the northern half of this line will
   likely struggle to maintain intensity as it moves into an air mass
   with greater inhibition (per recent RAP mesoanalysis), the southern
   portions should remain on the periphery of the more stable air and
   will continue to pose the risk for severe wind as the line moves to
   the east/northeast. 

   To the south of this line, scattered thunderstorm development
   continues along outflow boundaries from prior convection. Although
   the gradual development of a stable cold pool in this region will
   eventually limit the convective potential, favorable 30-40 knots of
   effective bulk shear and 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE should maintain the
   threat for severe hail and wind with the strongest storms for the
   next 1-2 hours.

   ..Moore.. 07/02/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ABR...UNR...

   LAT...LON   45520246 45760210 45850151 45300045 44670053 44190089
               43700148 43480206 43330292 43510328 44050341 44700273
               45520246