Mesoscale Discussion 1087
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0736 PM CDT Thu Jul 02 2020

   Areas affected...central North Dakota

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 324...

   Valid 030036Z - 030230Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 324
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Isolated severe hail and wind remain possible across WW
   324. However a gradual weakening trend is likely.

   DISCUSSION...Radar and MRMS vertically integrated ice trends across
   ND have shown a gradual weakening trend in ongoing convection over
   the past hour. This is likely due to gradually increasing MLCIN (per
   RAP mesoanalysis) and numerous cold pool/storm inflow interactions
   (due to the storm motion and boundary geometry). These processes
   should continue into the evening hours and should contribute to a
   continued gradual decline in overall storm intensity. However, given
   sufficient instability (1500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) and effective bulk
   shear (30-35 knots across the broader region), periodic cell
   intensification will remain possible on the eastern edge of the
   convection. If this occurs, severe hail and wind will be possible.

   ..Moore.. 07/03/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

   LAT...LON   46040192 46880201 48090214 48770173 48980090 48999955
               48059978 47120018 46440068 46110087 46040192