Mesoscale Discussion 1089
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0915 PM CDT Thu Jul 02 2020

   Areas affected...Central Kansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 030215Z - 030315Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...An MCS propagating into central KS should continue to
   support severe wind gusts over the next 1-2 hours. A watch will be
   issued soon to address this threat.

   DISCUSSION...An MCS moving across northern KS continues to produce
   severe winds gusts, including along its southern flank with 60-70
   mph winds recently reported. These wind reports support recent radar
   trends which show the southern portion of the line beginning to
   accelerate to the east/southeast. New convection developing ahead of
   this southeastward surge suggests that conditions remain favorable
   for continued propagation. This is supported by recent RAP
   mesoanalysis which shows Low-level lapse rates of 7-8 C/km and
   2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE in this region, suggesting that the severe
   wind threat should continue for the next one to two hours. As such,
   a watch is likely to cover this wind threat.

   ..Moore/Thompson.. 07/03/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

   LAT...LON   39409991 39639912 39479752 38959706 38349688 38069759
               38029820 38389937 38709979 39409991