Mesoscale Discussion 1093
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0347 PM CDT Fri Jul 03 2020

   Areas affected...eastern Montana...extreme northeast
   Wyoming...northwest South Dakota and southwest North Dakota

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 032047Z - 032245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing over the mountains of northern
   Wyoming and southern Montana are expected to undergo a gradual
   intensification as they move east through the northern High Plains
   later this afternoon into the evening. Damaging wind and large hail
   will be the primary threats with the stronger storms. A severe
   thunderstorm watch will probably be needed at some point, but timing
   remains somewhat uncertain, so trends will continue to be monitored.

   DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms continue developing over the
   mountains of northern WY and south central MT. However, based on
   current temperatures and RAP objective analysis, the boundary layer
   remains capped to surface-based thunderstorms, suggesting it may be
   difficult to sustain deep, organized convection east of the higher
   terrain in the near term. Latest objective analysis shows MLCAPE
   from 2000-2500 J/kg across eastern MT, and as temperatures rise to
   near 90 F, convective inhibition should weaken sufficiently for
   storms to survive and organize east of the mountains. This region
   resides within belt of 30-40 kt southwesterly winds aloft that exist
   above weak southeasterly post-frontal low-level flow. Once storms
   become established, a few supercells appear likely, but eventually
   some upscale growth should occur later during the evening.

   ..Dial/Guyer.. 07/03/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...

   LAT...LON   44300488 45580688 46430835 47990793 48650577 46900323
               44550290 44300488