Mesoscale Discussion 1097
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0208 PM CDT Sat Jul 04 2020

   Areas affected...Parts of southeast Colorado...far northeast New
   Mexico...west Oklahoma Panhandle...extreme northwest Texas Panhandle

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 041908Z - 042115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms will be possible later this
   afternoon and evening. Some large hail appears to be the main threat
   as storms move off of the higher terrain. Thereafter, a few damaging
   gusts may occur with storm clusters.

   DISCUSSION...Current visible satellite depicts clear skies across
   the lower Colorado Front Range, with convective initiation recently
   noted along the higher terrain of the central Rockies. Storms are
   expected to gradually increase in coverage and intensity with the
   continuation of strong diurnal heating and erosion of any remaining
   convective inhibition, as supported by the 12Z HREF and last several
   runs of the HRRR. 

   The severe threat is expected to remain somewhat limited given weak
   flow fields in the lower to mid troposphere. However, 7-8 C/km
   mid-level lapse rates across the higher terrain suggest that a few
   severe hailstones may accompany the more vigorous updrafts. Storms
   will slowly move eastward off of the higher terrain, where 8.5-9 /km
   low-level lapse rates and a very dry 850-700 mb layer will promote
   adequate evaporative cooling for a few damaging gusts, particularly
   with storm clusters and associated merging cold pools.

   ..Squitieri/Guyer.. 07/04/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   36970467 38160518 38760505 38940438 38880289 38810257
               37870215 36880206 36380227 36110244 35880328 36120426
               36480451 36970467