Mesoscale Discussion 1098
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0323 PM CDT Sat Jul 04 2020

   Areas affected...eastern North Dakota...far northern South Dakota
   and northwest Minnesota

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 042023Z - 042230Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Several severe storms are expected to develop over the
   next several hours, mainly over southern and eastern North Dakota,
   and also into surrounding parts of northeast South Dakota and
   northwest Minnesota. Large hail appears to be the main threat,
   transitioning to damaging winds by early evening. A brief tornado
   cannot be ruled out.

   DISCUSSION...The air mass has become moderately unstable due to
   heating in the wake of a decaying MCV, and in the vicinity of
   residual outflow boundaries. One distinct boundary currently
   stretches from north-central ND into southeast ND, where TCU and an
   isolated storm are currently developing. Farther north, another
   boundary extends across northeast ND into northwest MN, which will
   continue to modify.

   Shear is not particularly strong across the region, and low-level
   winds will remain modest well into the evening with only 20 kts at
   850 mb forecast. However, the strong instability will lead to
   scattered storm development over the next several hours, and a
   supercell or two will be possible given sufficient veering winds
   with height and robust updrafts. Large hail will be likely, and
   perhaps a brief/weak tornado prior to storms possibly growing into a
   cluster. Once this occurs, damaging wind will become a threat. As
   such, a watch may be needed.

   ..Jewell/Guyer.. 07/04/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...

   LAT...LON   46619642 46079673 45709749 45789851 45599972 45160065
               45340111 45740119 46130068 47679931 48119924 48669937
               48939926 49069884 49039633 48569625 47399614 46619642