Mesoscale Discussion 1100
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0446 PM CDT Sat Jul 04 2020

   Areas affected...northwest Texas and southwest Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 042146Z - 042345Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms will continue to pose the risk for
   isolated hail and wind over the next few hours.

   DISCUSSION...Radar trends from KFDR show continued thunderstorm
   development along outflow boundaries across southwest OK into
   northeast TX and the eastern TX Panhandle. Given limited convective
   inhibition and upwards of 1000-2000 J/km MLCAPE, continued
   convective development along these outflows is possible over the
   next few hours, especially along and south of the OK/TX border as a
   more cohesive outflow boundary moves southward. Despite weak deep
   layer shear (around 20 knots of effective bulk shear per RAP
   forecast soundings), recent one inch hail reports from the TX
   Panhandle and transient, but intense, cloud top cooling in IR
   imagery suggests that storms in this environment will continue to
   pose at least a brief threat for severe hail with any stronger
   updraft pulses. Additionally, steep low-level lapse rates around 8
   C/km will continue to support thunderstorm outflows with the
   potential for severe wind gusts. However, given the isolated nature
   of the stronger storms this hail and wind threat is expected to be
   fairly limited spatially, making watch issuance unlikely.

   ..Moore.. 07/04/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   33749974 34120079 34660134 35330132 35630109 35690070
               35580007 35079900 34759833 34539803 34259772 34009783
               33769822 33689916 33749974