Mesoscale Discussion 1107
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1250 PM CDT Sun Jul 05 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of northeast Virginia into central and
   eastern Maryland...Delaware...and southern New Jersey

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 051750Z - 051945Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms are possible through the
   afternoon hours. Damaging wind gusts appear to be the primary threat
   with the stronger storms.

   DISCUSSION...Current visible satellite depicts an agitated CU field
   rapidly developing across portions of the Delmarva into southern New
   Jersey, with convective initiation already noted along the lee of
   the Appalachians across western Virginia, and just off of the coast
   of Delaware. Surface temperatures over 90F, with dewpoints exceeding
   70F have resulted in a sufficiently moist and unstable air mass,
   with MLCAPE already over 3000 J/kg based on the latest Mesoanalysis.
   Continued strong diurnal heating will promote an increase in the
   coverage and intensity of storms throughout the afternoon.

   Stronger mid-level flow will be displaced farther to the northeast,
   limiting severe coverage to a degree. However, the strong buoyancy
   in place suggests that a few damaging gusts may accompany
   water-loaded downdrafts associated with the stronger storms. In
   addition, just enough stronger flow aloft along the periphery of a
   mid-level trough across the Northeast may glance eastern parts of
   the Delmarva into southern New Jersey. Here, up to 30 knots of
   effective bulk shear and modest low-level directional shear may
   encourage some updraft organization, and supercellular structure
   with brief, transient rotation cannot be completely ruled out, as
   noted in the 12Z HREF and the last few members of the HRRR.
   Nonetheless, isolated damaging gusts are still expected to be the
   primary threat with these storms.

   ..Squitieri/Guyer.. 07/05/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...

   LAT...LON   38167873 38987814 39657752 39657624 39897513 39947432
               39757419 39377429 38977464 38587505 38277560 38057625
               37737719 38167873