Mesoscale Discussion 1109
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0332 PM CDT Sun Jul 05 2020

   Areas affected...central into northeast South Dakota and southeast
   North Dakota

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 052032Z - 052230Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms are expected to develop over central South Dakota
   between 21-22Z, with localized damaging hail and wind possible
   through evening.

   DISCUSSION...Strong instability has developed over most of SD and
   extending northeast toward the Red River Valley with MLCAPE over
   2000 J/kg area-wide. Areas of midlevel convection have occurred as
   well over northern and eastern SD due to steep lapse rates aloft.

   Surface analysis shows a low-level lapse rate plume extending from
   the High Plains northeastward into central SD where temperatures are
   in the mid 90s F. In this heating zone, very little convective
   inhibition remains.

   Weak convergence near the surface trough will likely provide a focus
   for storm initiation after 22 or 23Z, from the NE Panhandle
   northeastward across SD. Shear is not very strong, but perhaps
   sufficient for a few long-lived storms capable of damaging hail, and
   localized downbursts as storm motions should remain slow.

   ..Jewell/Guyer.. 07/05/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR...

   LAT...LON   43629943 43500110 43690215 44070242 44670237 45020218
               45380179 46259903 46639816 46639763 46289734 45589735
               44279831 43629943