Mesoscale Discussion 1110
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0353 PM CDT Sun Jul 05 2020

   Areas affected...Far eastern New Mexico into parts of the Texas
   Panhandle

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 052053Z - 052300Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible
   throughout the afternoon. A few severe hail stones and perhaps
   damaging gusts may occur with the stronger storms.

   DISCUSSION...Current mosaic MRMS radar data and visible satellite
   imagery both depict a small uptick in convective coverage and
   intensity over the past hour across far eastern New Mexico with
   storms moving off of the higher terrain, and with storms developing
   with a remnant southward moving MCV across the extreme northwest TX
   Panhandle. Overall weak tropospheric winds suggest that most storms
   should be relatively short lived. Nonetheless, modest mid-level
   lapse rates exceeding 7.5 C/km suggest that some hail may accompany
   a few of the more intense storms, and a severe stone or two cannot
   be ruled out, particularly with the far eastern New Mexico storms
   moving off of the higher terrain. Otherwise, a dry boundary layer
   extending up to 700 mb (per latest RAP forecast soundings) and
   associated 8+ C/km low-level lapse rates may promote efficient
   evaporative cooling for a couple damaging gusts with the more
   intense downdrafts in the Texas Panhandle.

   ..Squitieri/Guyer.. 07/05/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   33440514 34660507 35930505 36820377 36980255 36430172
               35530134 34520145 33610222 33100280 32940353 33440514