Mesoscale Discussion 1112
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0629 PM CDT Sun Jul 05 2020

   Areas affected...Southern North Dakota and northeast South Dakota

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 331...

   Valid 052329Z - 060130Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 331
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The threat for severe wind and hail continues across WW
   331. The greatest near-term threat will be associated with
   developing supercells across southern North Dakota and clusters of
   storms from northeast to central South Dakota.

   DISCUSSION...Satellite and radar trends over the past hour show
   intensifying convection along a outflow boundary across southern to
   southwest ND and along a diffuse trough axis that is draped from
   eastern ND into central SD. The environment remains supportive of
   severe convection with 40-50 knots of effective bulk shear and
   1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE (per recent RAP mesoanalysis), and should
   remain so in the near-term (roughly the next 1-2 hours). Recent VAD
   profiles from KBIS show nearly straight hodographs through a deep
   layer, suggesting that discrete to semi-discrete storms may
   gradually grow upscale as storm splits and interactions become more
   common with time. As this occurs, the primary threat may shift from
   severe hail to wind. Despite somewhat weaker shear, clusters of
   storms across central to northeast SD should continue to pose a hail
   and wind threat as gradual upscale growth continues. 

   Additionally, new convective development is possible along an
   outflow boundary draped across southeast ND, just north of the ND/SD
   border. Recent visible imagery shows some deepening of cumulus along
   this line as temperature rebound into the low 80s. This suggests
   that boundary layer recovery may be sufficient for convection prior
   to sunset.

   ..Moore.. 07/05/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR...

   LAT...LON   45960306 46660277 46910140 46950026 46839769 46419708
               45669702 44989781 44529857 44079891 43809943 43700019
               44460078 45290140 45960306