Mesoscale Discussion 1116
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1133 AM CDT Mon Jul 06 2020

   Areas affected...eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey southward
   across the Chesapeake Bay region

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 061633Z - 061930Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered storms are likely to erupt by 18Z from eastern
   Pennsylvania into New Jersey, gradually spreading southward across
   the Chesapeake Bay region. Damaging wind gusts and areas of hail are
   expected.

   DISCUSSION...Cool temperatures aloft and early day heating have
   resulted in a very unstable air mass, with no capping. While there
   is no distinct boundary or large-scale lifting mechanism in the wake
   of the upper trough over the Canadian Maritimes, modified morning
   soundings and objective analysis fields indicate MLCAPE up to 3000
   J/kg and 0-3 km CAPE to 200 J/kg, suggesting any subtle lifting
   mechanism will result in storm initiation. 

   Visible imagery at 17Z shows a robust CU field from PA into NJ, and
   farther southwest over the Blue Ridge. Both these areas appear to be
   likely initiation zones, but the most extensive storm coverage will
   be over PA, NJ, then southward across the Delmarva. Other isolated
   storms may move slowly east off the higher terrain in VA. 

   While shear is weak, enough northwest flow aloft exists (when
   combined with subtle southwesterly low-level flow) to support south
   or even southwestward-propagating storm clusters. Given the buoyant
   low-levels, outflow should easily foster redevelopment with damaging
   wind gusts and areas of hail (1.00" to 1.50") expected.

   ..Jewell/Guyer.. 07/06/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...

   LAT...LON   37987531 37647551 37477637 37777689 38037735 38227801
               38327908 38507928 38917894 39207836 39377742 39687697
               40297651 40907548 40927492 40527415 40377390 39847400
               39337431 38887485 38687499 38357510 37987531