Mesoscale Discussion 1117
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0157 PM CDT Mon Jul 06 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of far southeast South Dakota...Southern
   Minnesota...far north-northwest Iowa

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 061857Z - 062100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A gradual increase in storm coverage and intensity is
   expected through the afternoon into early evening hours. Damaging
   gusts and large hail appear to be the primary threats. Convective
   trends will continue to be monitored through the afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Modest insolation is in progress across the Upper
   Mississippi Valley, in the wake of earlier convection. While
   convective outflow has progressed as far south as central IA this
   morning, surface temperatures have managed to climb into the lower
   80s with dewpoints near 70 in some spots. With modest (6.5-7 C/km)
   mid-level lapse rates advecting eastward atop the moistening
   boundary layer, MLCAPE has increased up to 1500 J/kg (per latest
   Mesoanalysis), especially in southeast SD, where relatively vigorous
   convective development has recently been noted. KFSD dual-doppler
   radar, and mosaic MRMS data suggest that severe hail is ongoing with
   an intensifying supercell in Hanson County, SD. While deep-layer
   shear is excpected to remain quite modest (i.e 30 knots of effective
   bulk shear) additional storm development, with a localized severe
   threat, is possible into early afternoon, as also noted in some of
   the latest high-resolution model guidance. Large hail as well as
   damaging gusts will be the primary threats with these storms.
   Convective trends will also be monitored for additional increases in
   convective coverage and intensity through the afternoon.

   ..Squitieri/Guyer.. 07/06/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...LBF...

   LAT...LON   42729871 43829819 44169713 44419548 44179431 43769425
               43049478 42469523 42359701 42729871