Mesoscale Discussion 1118
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0250 PM CDT Mon Jul 06 2020

   Areas affected...southeast Montana into the western Dakotas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 061950Z - 062145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered storms are likely to form over parts of eastern
   Montana and Wyoming, producing large hail and localized severe
   gusts. The threat is likely to persist into the western Dakotas
   through early evening.

   DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery and surface obs show a boundary
   extending west from the SD/NE border across northeast WY and into
   southern MT, where 50s F dewpoints remain with heating. Isolated
   strong cells have already formed across a west-east oriented zone
   where midlevel moisture is maximized.

   Objective analysis shows strong destabilization occurring south of
   the thicker clouds with MLCAPE exceeding 1500 j/kg. Moderate
   westerlies aloft will conditionally favor severe storms, possibly
   cells producing large hail, and eventually a bowing structure or two
   with damaging wind gusts. Midlevel flow around 50 kt and long
   hodographs may result in a few splitting supercells with very large
   hail.

   Low-level winds should strengthen further during the evening across
   the High Plains, with warm advection aiding lift and moisture
   transport and supporting storms traveling southeast.

   ..Jewell/Guyer.. 07/06/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...RIW...

   LAT...LON   45650761 46330824 46770814 47390558 47320429 46890305
               46240225 46140230 45150215 44440245 44010313 44050377
               44620651 45110729 45650761