Mesoscale Discussion 1120
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0348 PM CDT Mon Jul 06 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of Upper Michigan

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 062048Z - 062215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A couple damaging gusts and perhaps a severe hailstone may
   occur with a few of the stronger storm cores.

   DISCUSSION...An uptick in convective intensity has recently been
   noted along the leading edge of a cold pool induced by earlier
   storms across western parts of Upper Michigan. The peninsula has
   experienced appreciable diurnal heating over the past few hours,
   with temperatures rising into the 80s F based on latest METAR
   observations, with up to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE noted per latest
   Mesoanalysis. Nonetheless, kinematic fields are relatively weak,
   suggesting that most convection should be pulse-cellular in nature.
   Damaging gusts associated with water-loaded downdrafts appear to be
   the main threat with the most intense cores, and a severe hailstone
   cannot be completely ruled out. The greatest likelihood for any
   severe (albeit brief and localized) would likely be with storms that
   experience enhanced lift by the surging cold pool leading edge.

   ..Squitieri/Guyer.. 07/06/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...GRB...

   LAT...LON   45438781 46258749 46758686 46728512 46378376 46058379
               45868471 45608618 45238720 45438781