Mesoscale Discussion 1121
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0505 PM CDT Mon Jul 06 2020

   Areas affected...extreme southeast South Dakota and northeast
   Nebraska

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 062205Z - 062330Z

   CORRECTED FOR WRONG GEOGRAPHIC DESIGNATION

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to pose some risk for isolated
   strong to damaging wind gusts and hail through early evening. WW
   issuance is uncertain at this time. However, trends will continue to
   be monitored for better storm organization and a possible WW.

   DISCUSSION...A small cluster of thunderstorms has developed along a
   cold front over the southeast SD northeast NE border and is moving
   slowly southeast. The downstream atmosphere is moderately to
   strongly unstable with 2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE and 7-7.5 C/km
   mid-level lapse rates. Storms should develop south-southeast next
   few hours supported by lift along the consolidating outflow
   boundary. The storms reside south of the stronger flow aloft with
   modest (20-30 kt) westerly mid-level winds along with less than 35
   kt effective bulk shear. This environment will support multicell
   storm modes next few hours along with some risk for hail and strong
   wind gusts. After sunset, increasing convective inhibition may
   contribute to a decrease in storm intensity/organization, especially
   given expected lack of a low-level jet. In the near term if storms
   begin to show signs of becoming better organized as an MCS, a severe
   thunderstorm watch might be needed.

   ..Dial/Thompson.. 07/06/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...

   LAT...LON   41709760 42389787 42979758 42969683 42149623 41699636
               41509709 41709760