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Mesoscale Discussion 1123
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0614 PM CDT Mon Jul 06 2020
Areas affected...southeast Montana...northeast Wyoming...western
South Dakota and southwest North Dakota
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 334...
Valid 062314Z - 070045Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 334
continues.
SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and damaging wind will remain likely
with the stronger storms as they continue southeast through the
northern High Plains this evening.
DISCUSSION...Isolated supercells continue spreading southeast within
corridor of post-frontal low-level easterlies from southeast MT into
northeast WY. The downstream atmosphere is moderately unstable in
this region with 2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Moreover, strong low-level
turning beneath 50 kt mid-upper level flow is contributing to 60 kt
effective bulk shear supportive of supercells. Storms will likely
remain isolated for a while longer. Later upscale growth will depend
on if enough storms can develop and consolidate a cold pool as the
low-level jet strengthens, but before increasing convective
inhibition becomes a limiting factor.
..Dial.. 07/06/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...
LAT...LON 46650724 46470375 45820205 44860130 43150161 43540421
45220680 46650724
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