Mesoscale Discussion 1130
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0147 PM CDT Tue Jul 07 2020

   Areas affected...much of central and eastern Montana

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 071847Z - 072115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms will rapidly develop over central Montana over the
   next few hours, with damaging wind and hail likely.

   DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a cold front over west-central
   MT, with low pressure over WY and a surface ridge currently into
   northeast MT. Easterly surface winds are maintaining 50s F DEWPOINTS
   into central MT, where MLCAPE is currently 1000-1500 J/kg.

   Storms are ongoing mainly behind the wind shift into western MT,
   where drier, but still unstable air exists due to cooling aloft.
   Additional storms will likely form by 20-21Z near the progressing
   front over central MT, with upscale growth into one or more lines or
   bows this afternoon into the early evening.

   Very steep lapse rates, strong deep-layer shear, and ample moisture
   will lead to significant outflow, with damaging gusts expected.
   Potentially very large hail is possible with the cellular activity
   mainly over eastern MT where moisture is greater.

   ..Jewell/Hart.. 07/07/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

   LAT...LON   45791013 45901039 46401039 46991042 47431071 48151076
               49041069 49051031 49030725 49020406 46440408 45950424
               45420458 45070529 45040639 45080754 45280787 45540846
               45791013