Mesoscale Discussion 1132
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0548 PM CDT Tue Jul 07 2020

   Areas affected...Northeast New Mexico and the western Oklahoma and
   Texas Panhandles

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 072248Z - 080015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms moving out of northeast New Mexico
   may pose a risk for occasional downburst winds. A watch is not
   likely.

   DISCUSSION...A line of ongoing thunderstorms moving across northeast
   NM should continue into the west/northwest Oklahoma and Texas
   Panhandles over the next 1 to 2 hours. These storms are gradually
   moving into an environment with higher-quality low-level moisture
   (dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s noted across the western
   Panhandles), around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE, and limited inhibition (based
   on RAP forecast soundings and shallow cumulus across the region). 
   Recent IR imagery has shown occasional strong updraft pulses over
   the past 30 minutes, suggesting that periodic storm intensification
   remains possible. Steep low-level lapse rates between 8-9 C/km are
   also in place across this region as the result of deep boundary
   layer mixing. This low-level thermodynamic profile may support
   strong outflows with the potential for occasional strong wind gusts.
   However, given weak forcing for ascent and limited deep layer shear,
   the overall severe threat should remain localized and limited in
   duration. As such, a watch is not likely.

   ..Moore.. 07/07/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   36060452 37190389 37880345 37900249 37370180 36550165
               35460196 35080278 35350361 35800425 36060452