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Mesoscale Discussion 1137
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0137 AM CDT Wed Jul 08 2020
Areas affected...Eastern North Dakota...Northwest and North-central
Minnesota
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 342...
Valid 080637Z - 080830Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 342
continues.
SUMMARY...A severe threat will be likely across eastern North Dakota
over the next hour. The threat is also expected to affect northwest
and north-central Minnesota. Wind damage, isolated large hail and a
brief tornado will be possible. Weather watch issuance or a local
extension in area may be needed as the convective line moves toward
the edge of WW 342 in a couple hours.
DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery shows a well-developed linear
MCS across eastern North Dakota. The MCS was comprised of a
fast-moving bowing line segment with a warm advection wing extending
southeastward into far southeast North Dakota. The line of severe
storms is being supported by a deep rear inflow jet which appears
maximized from 5,000 to 17,000 ft looking from the Grand Forks
radar. Convection associated with this MCS is moving to the east
near 50 kt. This will be favorable for wind damage along the leading
edge of the bow echo. The station 46D at Carrington, North Dakota
recorded a 52 kt wind gust as the bowing segment passed. Isolated
wind damage and large hail may also occur with the stronger cores
along the warm advection wing. A QLCS tornado and isolated large
hail can not be ruled out with rotating cells embedded in the line.
The line of severe storms should approach the edge of WW 342 around
08Z necessitating an watch extension or new watch.
..Broyles/Edwards.. 07/08/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...
LAT...LON 48350029 47789999 47099999 46550012 45970007 45799968
45819795 45879630 46509600 47039543 48029539 48699562
49109652 49119963 48350029
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