Mesoscale Discussion 1140
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1229 PM CDT Wed Jul 08 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of western...central and southern New York
   into far northern Pennsylvania

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 081729Z - 081900Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A couple damaging gusts may accompany the stronger storms
   as a primary threat. An instance of severe hail cannot be ruled out.

   DISCUSSION...Convective initiation has recently transpired across
   western into central New York given the passing of a subtle
   mid-level impulse and continued, relatively strong surface heating.
   These storms are progressing in an environment characterized by
   modest buoyancy (around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE), primarily driven by steep
   low-level lapse rates exceeding 8 C/km (per latest Mesoanalysis),
   but with weak deep-layer flow below 500 mb. 16Z RAP forecast
   soundings depict weak vertical shear across the region, suggesting
   that relatively disorganized and short-lived, pulse-cellular
   convective structures are most likely, as also supported by the last
   few runs of the HRRR. Given the magnitude of buoyancy and steep
   low-level lapse rates, the stronger cells may produce a few damaging
   gusts, and a brief instance or two of marginally severe hail cannot
   be completely ruled out. It is questionable how far southeast these
   storms will progress considering the convection lingering around far
   southeast NY into northeast PA/far northern NJ.

   ..Squitieri/Guyer.. 07/08/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...

   LAT...LON   42757801 43117742 43087618 42657531 42087500 41687514
               41497561 41437620 41647705 41957769 42647819 42757801