Mesoscale Discussion 1141
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0301 PM CDT Wed Jul 08 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of southeast New York into Massachusetts
   and far northern Connecticut

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 082001Z - 082130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A couple damaging gusts or severe hail may accompany the
   stronger storm clusters.

   DISCUSSION...Mainly pulse-cellular convection, with occasional
   multicellular clusters, have been ongoing across portions of central
   New England over the past few hours. A multicellular cluster across
   east-central NY is progressing towards MA, where a relatively
   pristine ambient environment is in place. Several hours of daytime
   heating and lack of convection (compared to areas farther south)
   have resulted in surface temperatures reaching well into the 80s F,
   with dewpoints over 70 F, and MLCAPE reaching 1500-2000 J/kg based
   on latest Mesoanalysis. As such, storms are expected to progress
   into or develop over MA/northern CT over the next few hours. While
   overall tropospheric flow fields are weak compared to northern New
   England, enough buoyancy is in place to support an isolated damaging
   gust/hail threat with any dominant multicellular cluster.

   ..Squitieri/Guyer.. 07/08/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...ALY...BGM...

   LAT...LON   42617470 42777426 42787368 42777292 42747195 42757129
               42687079 42567049 42217073 42047162 41987266 42067348
               42247431 42617470