Mesoscale Discussion 1142
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0303 PM CDT Wed Jul 08 2020

   Areas affected...the eastern Dakotas into central and northern
   Minnesota

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 082003Z - 082200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms are likely to form near the low over west-central
   Minnesota and northeast South Dakota mainly after 21Z with
   additional activity toward the Arrowhead atop the old outflow. Hail,
   damaging wind, and a couple tornadoes will all be possible through
   evening.

   DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a low near the SD/ND/MN area,
   along a front/weak wind shift. Strong instability has developed
   ahead of this boundary, with MLCAPE to 3000 J/kg. Instability is
   also increasing over much of MN, where impressive air mass recovery
   is taking place in the wake of the early day MCS. 

   Lift atop the residual cool air mass is aiding a few elevated
   storms, and some of these may produce hail in the short term across
   north-central MN into the Arrowhead. Otherwise, storms are expected
   to form within the agitated CU field now over far southeast
   ND/northeast SD near the low, and generally extending east/northeast
   across central/northern MN where the air mass will continue to
   recover.

   Supercells are possible initially, with modest southwest winds aloft
   and low-level winds veering with height, aided by the outflow/warm
   advection zone. The greatest tornado threat is expected across
   north-central MN and extending toward the Arrowhead through evening,
   or as far northeast as the stronger surface-based instability
   develops. Large hail is possible with any of the storms, and
   damaging winds will likely become an increasing concern if storm
   coverage and outflow increases.

   ..Jewell/Guyer.. 07/08/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...

   LAT...LON   45659736 46419649 47049589 47469560 48429482 48669423
               48539332 47939254 47169204 46219222 45669309 45319431
               44959559 44769649 44799718 45129756 45659736