Mesoscale Discussion 1144
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0339 PM CDT Wed Jul 08 2020

   Areas affected...much of Nebraska...southeast South Dakota

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 082039Z - 082315Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe storms are expected to rapidly develop around
   23-00Z from southeast South Dakota across northern into central
   Nebraska, with damaging winds the primary hazard.

   DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a trough/wind shift from
   east-central SD into northern NE, with strong instability along and
   south of it. Meanwhile, a lee trough also exists over the High
   Plains, where isolated storms have already formed across southeast
   WY, though currently high-based.

   CU fields continued to increase over NE and SD, with hot
   temperatures and steep lapse rates noted from the High Plains into
   much of NE. Storms are likely to initiate along the surface trough
   from SD into NE, quickly becoming severe along a line. In addition,
   storms coming out of the High Plains may produce additional outflow
   which may eventually merge with storms along the front. Steep lapse
   rates aloft also indicate very strong updrafts are likely, and large
   hail is expected.

   Modest westerly winds aloft and initially weak low-level winds will
   favor substantial outflow with southeastward-propagating storms. A
   severe MCS appears likely, with significant damaging winds possible
   as the system matures this evening.

   ..Jewell/Guyer.. 07/08/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...
   CYS...

   LAT...LON   43669912 44069762 44009690 43679650 43089642 42529680
               41709785 41039850 40239872 40049935 40110039 40270091
               40500192 41090262 41710272 41990248 42340197 43669912