Mesoscale Discussion 1148
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0839 PM CDT Wed Jul 08 2020

   Areas affected...north-central and northeast KS...eastern
   NE...western IA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

   Valid 090139Z - 090315Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...A new severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed by
   10pm CDT for areas of KS and NE to the east of severe thunderstorm
   watch #345.

   DISCUSSION...Radar/satellite composite shows upscale growth of two
   thunderstorm clusters occurring early this evening as a central
   Great Plains LLJ intensifies.  KUEX VAD data shows the initial
   uptick of 1-2km flow AGL during the past hour with further
   strengthening likely through 11pm CDT.  The strengthening warm air
   advection and the presence of a moist/unstable boundary layer
   (around 15 g/kg lowest 100mb mean mixing ratio per the Omaha and
   Topeka 7pm observed soundings), will favor additional thunderstorm
   development through the evening.  A consolidation of the convective
   clusters into a continuous squall line is expected over the next few
   hours.  Severe gusts 60-80 mph are possible with the more intense
   downdrafts/bowing segments in the squall line as propagates
   southeast this evening.

   ..Smith/Hart.. 07/09/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

   LAT...LON   42719718 42789602 42339557 41329578 39559558 38669609
               38469740 38839942 39929920 42719718