Mesoscale Discussion 1149
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0951 PM CDT Wed Jul 08 2020

   Areas affected...northeast South Dakota into central Minnesota and
   northwest Wisconsin

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 344...

   Valid 090251Z - 090445Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 344
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The risk for severe hail and wind continues for much of WW
   344. Developing thunderstorms across northeast South Dakota will
   pose an increasing risk for severe weather into western Minnesota.

   DISCUSSION...Convective initiation has occurred along a stationary
   boundary/surface trough draped across northeast SD. These storms are
   developing in an environment that remains supportive for severe
   convection with ample instability and 30-40 knots of effective bulk
   shear. Initially discrete storms will pose the risk for both severe
   hail and strong winds. A transition to primarily a wind threat is
   expected as along-boundary deep layer shear and long storm residence
   times on the initiating boundary favor upscale growth into more
   linear storm modes. These storms should move into western MN within
   the coming hours. 

   Thunderstorms developing across central MN will pose some severe
   potential given favorable shear and instability that remains in
   place. However, the duration/coverage of this severe threat is
   uncertain as storms move into an area recently contaminated by prior
   convection.  

   To the east, thunderstorms across east-central MN and northwest WI
   continue to grow upscale with linear segments noted in recent
   regional radar imagery. Organized convective outflow has largely
   been sub-severe, likely due to a cooling boundary layer/marine
   boundary layer influences, and weaker deep-layer shear. However,
   spurious downburst winds, and even severe hail, remain possible with
   any stronger updraft pulses. These storms may reach as far east as
   the western U.P. of MI, but given weakening MLCAPE and deep-layer
   shear with eastward extent, a watch extension is not anticipated.

   ..Moore.. 07/09/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...

   LAT...LON   44669841 45569685 46819510 47609297 47419084 47018891
               46378884 45858915 45669142 45169326 44549555 44339795
               44669841