Mesoscale Discussion 1151
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1253 AM CDT Thu Jul 09 2020

   Areas affected...Western and North-central Minnesota

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 090553Z - 090830Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat will be likely over the next
   couple of hours. Wind damage and isolated large hail will be the
   primary threats. The potential is expected to eventually become
   marginal and weather watch issuance is not expected.

   DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar imagery shows several small
   thunderstorm clusters ongoing from just south of Fargo, North Dakota
   extending northeastward toward the Arrowhead of Minnesota. Surface
   analysis has a 1005 mb low over western Minnesota with a cold front
   from northwest Minnesota into northeastern South Dakota. The
   convection is located ahead of the front in a moist airmass with
   surface dewpoints in the lower 70s F. This is contributing to
   moderate to strong instability with MLCAPE ranging from 1500 J/kg in
   northeast Minnesota to as great as 3500 J/kg in west-central
   Minnesota. In addition to the instability, WSR-88D VWP at Duluth and
   Aberdeen have 0-6 km shear near 45 kt. Although deep-layer shear may
   be a bit weaker across north-central Minnesota, the instability will
   be enough to support a severe threat for a couple more hours. Cells
   are expected to remain widely scattered in nature. For this reason,
   the severe threat should remain isolated. Wind damage and isolated
   large hail will be the primary threats.

   ..Broyles/Edwards.. 07/09/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...

   LAT...LON   46129306 46599225 47149198 47529218 47729252 47879318
               47739392 47509443 47299485 46969553 46679611 46429654
               46079670 45899671 45599658 45399617 45399561 45609482
               45819420 46129306