Mesoscale Discussion 1153
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0446 AM CDT Thu Jul 09 2020

   Areas affected...Southwest and South-central South Dakota

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 090946Z - 091215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated large-hail threat will likely continue for a
   couple more hours across southwestern and south-central South
   Dakota. The threat should be marginal and no weather watch issuance
   is expected.

   DISCUSSION...Scattered strong thunderstorms are currently ongoing
   from the Black Hills eastward across the Badlands vicinity into into
   south-central South Dakota. This activity is located near a pocket
   of moderate instability with the RAP analyzing MLCAPE in the 1000 to
   1500 J/kg range. In addition, the Rapid City WSR-88D VWP shows 0-6
   km shear near 35 kt. This combined with steep mid-level lapse rates
   near 8.0 C/km will be sufficient for an isolated large-hail threat.
   As instability weakens over the next few hours, the hail threat
   should become increasingly marginal.

   ..Broyles/Edwards.. 07/09/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS...

   LAT...LON   43240088 42960162 42890268 42900338 43020381 43410377
               43970270 44350149 44400048 44060008 43660042 43400067
               43240088