Mesoscale Discussion 1155
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1024 AM CDT Thu Jul 09 2020

   Areas affected...much of central and eastern Iowa...parts of
   surrounding states

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 091524Z - 091800Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms will increase in coverage this afternoon ahead of
   an MCV, and areas of damaging wind gusts and marginal hail will be
   possible.

   DISCUSSION...Satellite shows a well-defined MCV over IA with strong
   heating to the east/northeast. While the air over southwest IA and
   western MO has been stabilized by the nocturnal MCS, a good fetch of
   high theta-e air exists downstream from eastern MO and IL curling
   northwestward into IA and southern WI.

   Shear associated with the MCV may increase somewhat throughout the
   day, though low-level shear for any tornado threat is currently
   weak, and 0-1 SRH may not even reach 100 m2/s2. At this time, it
   appears that damaging winds may become the primary concern later
   today as storms develop in the instability axis and near/ahead of
   the low. Relatively cool temperatures aloft north/east of the MCV
   may also favor hail in the strongest cores.

   ..Jewell/Guyer.. 07/09/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...EAX...

   LAT...LON   40639313 41249332 41769358 42019415 42239433 42719450
               43179412 43659359 43969263 43929142 43669082 42939033
               42329023 41609034 41009080 40529147 40399180 40379252
               40409282 40639313