Mesoscale Discussion 1156
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1046 AM CDT Thu Jul 09 2020

   Areas affected...much of Arkansas...far eastern Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 091546Z - 091745Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe gusts remain possible mainly
   through early afternoon from far eastern Oklahoma into Arkansas. It
   is unclear whether severe potential will necessitate a watch into
   central Arkansas.

   DISCUSSION...A small MCS continues to push southeastward into
   northwest AR, with isolated gusts near severe limits measured. The
   air mass is moist and unstable downstream, though the 12Z LZK
   sounding shows more of a warm layer above 700 mb compared to SGF.
   Shear will remain weak across the area, and this system will remain
   outflow-driven.

   Model consensus is for storms to remain strong for 2-3 hours, with a
   downward trend presumably as the cold pool weakens. Other cells may
   develop ahead of the MCS as well, and localized strong wind gusts or
   marginal hail cannot be ruled out with that activity. Watch
   potential will likely depend on MCS trends over the next 1-2 hours.

   ..Jewell/Guyer.. 07/09/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...

   LAT...LON   36379370 36229263 35809180 35269145 34529146 33829192
               33519294 33579392 33809452 34359498 34959518 35309516
               35619462 35859422 36139391 36379370