Mesoscale Discussion 1160
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0337 PM CDT Thu Jul 09 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of eastern Colorado into extreme western
   Kansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 092037Z - 092200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A few isolated storms may produce a couple damaging gusts
   or severe hailstones, particularly during the late afternoon into
   early evening.

   DISCUSSION...Convective initiation has recently been noted in the
   general vicinity of Lincoln County CO, with strong diurnal heating
   and upslope flow are acting as primary sources of lift across the
   Colorado Front Range. Despite generally weak forcing for ascent, a
   near 70 knot jet streak overspreading the area is contributing to
   50+ knots of effective bulk shear, with 8+ C/km sfc-3km and 700-500
   mb lapse rates contributing up to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE. As such, any
   storms that can become organized and sustained will likely obtain
   supercellular structure, with damaging gusts and large hail the
   primary threats. Nonetheless, lack of stronger deep-layer ascent
   suggests that storms should be isolated and spatially constrained by
   convective outflow/stronger capping to the east, as well as
   temporally constrained mainly to the diurnal heating cycle, as
   suggested by the last several runs of the HRRR.

   ..Squitieri/Guyer.. 07/09/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...

   LAT...LON   38220291 38590390 39080436 39690417 40010337 39950227
               39580177 39080160 38440148 38200227 38220291