Mesoscale Discussion 1163
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0542 PM CDT Thu Jul 09 2020

   Areas affected...eastern TX Panhandle...west-central and southwest
   OK

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 092242Z - 100015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...High-based storms may develop over the next 1-2 hours.  If
   storms become established, isolated severe gusts 60-80 mph are
   possible with the downdrafts.

   DISCUSSION...5pm CDT surface analysis indicates a complex dryline
   structure with a moisture discontinuity extending southwest from the
   northeast TX Panhandle into the TX South Plains whereas another more
   prominent dryline is analyzed paralleling the TX Panhandle/OK border
   southward.  Surface dewpoints over the eastern TX Panhandle are
   generally in the mid-upper 50s F with richer low-level moisture
   located in southwest OK with upper 60s F dewpoints.  Both the 18z
   NAM and recent runs of the RAP are under-forecasting the surface
   temperature/dewpoints across the discussion area.  Modifying the
   soundings over the eastern TX Panhandle result in 3000-4000 J/kg
   SBCAPE with 6000-6500 J/kg SBCAPE over southwest OK based on West TX
   and OK mesonet data.

   The very steep low to mid-level lapse rates coupled with 30-40 kt
   effective shear will potentially support organized storm structures.
   Given the weak forcing setup, it is uncertain whether more than a
   few storms will develop and perhaps become sustained.  If the
   high-based storms manage to become rooted in the boundary layer,
   60-80 mph gusts are possible with the stronger evaporatively cooled
   downdrafts.

   ..Smith/Hart.. 07/09/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   36059948 36010010 34720099 34140049 34049961 35709915
               36059948