Mesoscale Discussion 1166
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0441 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2020

   Areas affected...South-central and Southeast Kansas...Far Northern
   Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch needed soon 

   Valid 100941Z - 101015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...A threat for isolated large hail and a few severe wind
   gusts will be possible over the next few hours across south-central
   Kansas. A watch is currently being issued across south-central and
   southeast Kansas.

   DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar imagery shows scattered
   thunderstorms across parts of central Kansas. The storms are located
   ahead of a subtle shortwave trough evident on water vapor imagery.
   The storms are also located along a gradient of moderate instability
   extending from northwest Kansas southeastward into northern
   Oklahoma. The RAP is estimating that MUCAPE values across central
   Kansas are in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. This will fuel the storms
   as they move southeastward across southeastern Kansas over the next
   few hours. Forecast soundings at Wichita have 50 kt of cloud-layer
   shear and 700-500 mb lapse rates approaching 8.0 C/km. The
   environment should be adequate for large hail. Although the storms
   should remain mostly elevated, a few severe wind gusts can not be
   ruled out.

   ..Broyles/Thompson.. 07/10/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...

   LAT...LON   36999591 36589650 36589791 36879860 37379918 38069944
               38469976 38899994 39159971 39189917 39159841 38979744
               38449667 37779592 36999591