Mesoscale Discussion 1168
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0913 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2020

   Areas affected...western/central South Dakota and north-central
   Nebraska

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 101413Z - 101515Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated hail and wind gusts approaching severe levels are
   possible with ongoing convection through the morning.  A WW issuance
   is not anticipated for this activity, though trends will be
   monitored.

   DISCUSSION...Deep, lightning-producing convection has intensified
   over the past hour or so along an axis from near 50 N RAP
   south-southeastward to 15 NNW VTN.  This axis coincides with
   convergence on the northern/northeastern periphery of a low-level
   jet in the 700-850 hPa layer over western portions of Nebraska/South
   Dakota.  The storms are in an environment characterized by steep
   mid-level lapse rates (exceeding 8C/km) atop a shallow stable layer,
   with strong shear in the cloud-bearing layer supportive of
   organization and rotation aloft with more persistent convection. 
   This supports an isolated wind/hail threat through the morning
   hours.

   Most CAMs/model guidance suggest that the ongoing storms will
   persist throughout the day while shifting east across the discussion
   area despite weakening flow/convergence associated with the
   aforementioned low-level jet.  Steep lapse rates will tend to
   support a continued, yet isolated hail risk through the early
   afternoon, and any persistent convection that can become
   surface-based will pose a greater threat for damaging wind gusts as
   well.  A more widespread threat for wind/hail may materialize later
   this evening with surface-based convection moving in from the west. 
   A WW issuance is not anticipated this morning, though convective
   trends will continue to be monitored.

   ..Cook/Kerr.. 07/10/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...

   LAT...LON   45340300 45530215 45330065 44489979 43229896 42309888
               42019951 42040039 42740175 43760260 44590313 45340300