Mesoscale Discussion 1170
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1133 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2020

   Areas affected...Southeast Michigan...much of Ohio...and far
   northern Kentucky

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 101633Z - 101800Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Strong to isolated severe storms are expected through the
   afternoon. Damaging winds will be the primary threat.

   DISCUSSION...Temperatures have warmed into the upper 80s with
   dewpoints in the low 70s across much of the Ohio Valley. A cold
   front is currently located from southeastern Michigan into western
   Ohio and central Kentucky. Boundary layer heating has eroded the
   inhibition along and ahead of the cold front which has allowed
   numerous storms to develop in an environment with MLCAPE around 1500
   to 2000 J/kg. Shear is mostly weak (less than 30 knots) throughout
   the troposphere with limited effective shear around 15 to 20 knots
   per KILN VWP. This weak flow will be the primary limiting factor to
   a greater severe weather threat. However, despite the weak flow,
   there will be some damaging wind threat due to very steep (8.5-9
   C/km) low-level lapse rates and water loading with downdrafts as
   individual storm cells collapse.

   ..Bentley/Kerr.. 07/10/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...DTX...LMK...IWX...

   LAT...LON   38898464 39748442 41388405 41938399 42518346 42758255
               42578131 41648098 40208148 38198224 37878299 38058370
               38458419 38898464