Mesoscale Discussion 1172
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0209 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2020

   Areas affected...southeastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 101909Z - 102115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Loosely organized, pulse-type convection may pose an
   isolated damaging wind risk this afternoon, although a WW issuance
   is not anticipated.

   DISCUSSION...Although earlier convection associated with a mature
   MCS entering southeastern Oklahoma has weakened, newer updrafts
   near/southwest of FSM have materialized over the past half hour to
   hour.  These storms are beginning to propagate into an environment
   characterized by strong instability (2500+ J/kg MLCAPE), but very
   weak shear (10-15 knots through the 0-6km AGL layer).  This suggests
   that any organization with newer development should be weak, though
   an advancing remnant cold pool from earlier convection may aid in
   focusing newer convective development into loosely organized
   clusters/lines, promoting a few damaging wind gusts.  The magnitude
   of instability and mid-level lapse rates may promote small hail
   also.  A WW issuance is unlikely for this activity.

   ..Cook/Kerr.. 07/10/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   35309429 35239482 34849547 34489608 34259645 33999649
               33869566 33849434 33679359 33749319 34019280 34629281
               34989316 35309429