Mesoscale Discussion 1173
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0234 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2020

   Areas affected...much of central/eastern Nebraska

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 101934Z - 102130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated convection over eastern Cherry Co., Nebraska is
   severe and capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts.  A
   conditional severe threat exists downstream, which may require a
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Recent, robust convective development over Cherry Co.
   Nebraska and vicinity is likely severe, with radar indications of
   potentially significant hail and strong to severe near-surface wind
   gusts.  The storm itself is likely slightly elevated atop a cold
   pool from earlier development/MCS that has weakened over
   south-central South Dakota and an augmented convective boundary
   near/west of the storm due to rear-flank downdraft processes.  The
   pre-convective environment has become strongly unstable, with upper
   80s F surface temperatures and low 70s F dewpoints beneath very
   steep mid-level lapse rates fostering 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE.  Weak
   inhibition is noted on point forecast soundings at around 700 hPa,
   which is likely resulting in capping along the surging outflow and
   limiting convective development just to the Cherry County vicinity. 
   This lends some uncertainty with regard to the extent of convective
   coverage both along the outflow and downstream.  Convective trends
   are being monitored, and if ongoing convection persists and/or
   expands in coverage, a WW issuance would be needed.

   ..Cook/Kerr.. 07/10/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...

   LAT...LON   42630042 42570120 42260167 41810159 41260087 40769925
               40729813 40979747 41489730 42149753 42559837 42659894
               42630042