Mesoscale Discussion 1175
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0314 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2020

   Areas affected...western Nebraska and far northeastern Colorado

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 102014Z - 102215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...A conditional threat for isolated thunderstorm development
   will exist this afternoon and early evening.  If a WW is needed, the
   most likely location for issuance is in western Nebraska.

   DISCUSSION...Strong insolation has allowed for surface temperatures
   to increase into the upper 90s to 100 F across the discussion area
   recently beneath very steep mid-level lapse rates.  Point forecast
   soundings indicate that inhibition has been nearly completely
   removed especially along/near a dryline subjectively analyzed from
   near GCC to BFF to AKO.  A few areas of towering cumulus have also
   been noted via visible satellite imagery especially near the
   dryline.  Strong ridging/height rises have been noted across much of
   the region, though the glancing influence of a mid-level trough over
   central Montana/northern Wyoming may support isolated convective
   development over time.  This risk is a bit uncertain, however.

   Should storms form, very steep low- and mid-level lapse rates and
   appreciable deep shear (>40 knots) will promote damaging wind and
   hail potential.  Any linear organization/upscale growth may even
   promote enough of a spatial/temporal threat to necessitate a WW
   issuance, although that scenario isn't particularly clear. 
   Convective trends will continue to be monitored.

   ..Cook/Kerr.. 07/10/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   42990290 42660328 42040317 41160294 40240299 39530298
               39400265 39700220 40970154 41330133 42070131 42750166
               42990290